Business Strategy and Outlook | 02 Jan 2020
SEB’s focus on corporate lending and advisory banking services results in a healthy diversification between spread and fee-based income streams. We also like the group’s achievements in its efficiency programmes, keeping costs virtually flat for almost a decade. We find it difficult to close the gap between SEB’s ambition for a 15% return on equity and its current outlook, however.
Profitability in the bank's largest segment, large corporates and financial institutions, just about covers our cost of equity assumption, while we believe the strong performance in the small corporates and private customer segment as well as the Baltics is partially supported by a currently benign credit environment. Additionally, we are more cautious on management’s ability to maintain the cost cap. The first step, to soften the cap, was taken in the last business plan update, and we believe further risks of cost inflation exist. Now guidance excludes investments in the business, and additional costs for anti-money-laundering staff could also be on the horizon. SEB has exploited its largest efficiency levers such as noncore divestments and branch closures. As a result, the group now has one of the smallest branch networks in the Nordics, and management already acknowledged that any further closures may chip away at its small and medium enterprise business, which relies on close customer relationships through branches. As a result, we expect costs to trend upwards from here, forcing it to turn toward its top line to drive earnings growth.
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