Swedbank: fair value kvar på 183 kr

AKTIE: Morningstar har uppdaterat analysen av europeiska banker med effekterna av Covid-19, i snitt blir vinstminskningen 38 procent. Men Swedbank behåller ett fundamentalt värde på 183 kronor per aktie (22 april 2020).

Morningstar Equity Analysts 2020-04-22 | 17:23
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Analyst Note |  Apr 22 2020 

We have recently updated all our European banking models to incorporate the effects of the coronavirus. We now forecast that the median bank that we cover will book a 38% earnings decline in fiscal 2020 compared with 2019. We then, however, forecast a solid recovery in 2021 and 2022, with median earnings growth of 31% and 17% respectively. A sharp median increase of 125% in loan-loss provisions is the main driver of the expected decline in earnings, but we also anticipate that median revenue will decline by 4%. Importantly, we do not believe that any of the European banks we cover, with the exception of Deutsche Bank, will record a loss for 2020. 

The median European bank that we cover has lost half of its market value year to date and now trades at 0.45 times its fiscal 2019 tangible book value. A number of the banks we cover are now trading at their lowest valuation multiples ever. The market is clearly pricing in either deeply discounted capital calls or material structural declines in profitability. If our view, that banks will remain profitable, proves to be correct it is unlikely there will be a broad recapitalisation of the industry as we witnessed during the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009. Our midcycle estimates of profitability did not change materially for most banks that we cover. European banks are also better capitalised and more liquid than during the previous downturn. We believe there are good value opportunities among European banks. Wide-moat Julius Baer is trading at 0.7 times our fair value estimate and is offering a rare opportunity to get exposure to its high-quality franchise at such a discount. Narrow-moat Credit Suisse remains attractively priced at 0.5 times our fair value estimate, while narrow moat Santander also looks attractive at 0.5 times our fair value estimate--although we do caution investors that they will be exposed to currency risk as Santander generates the bulk of its earnings in emerging markets.

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