Telia: behåller 40 kr fair value trots coronakrisen

Kostnadsbesparingar, fokus på Norden och köpet av TV4 kommer framöver att höja Telias lönsamhet. 5G kräver ökade investeringar, men Morningstars analys ger 40 kronor som en fundamentalt motiverad aktiekurs (22 april 2020).

Morningstar Equity Analysts 2020-04-22 | 14:06

Analyst Note |   Apr 22 2020

Narrow-moat Telia reported first-quarter revenues of SEK 22.4 million, a 2% organic decline over the first quarter of last year. In the quarter, adjusted EBITDA declined by 5% over last year, like for like, as the newly established TV and media unit suffered from coronavirus headwinds. We update our full-year 2020 forecast mainly to account for EBITDA contraction in TV and media. The EBITDA impact on the unit is quite significant, but we estimate the unit contributed only 5% to group EBITDA. We now expect the unit’s EBITDA to be in the range of SEK 0-0.5 billion this year, versus SEK 1.5 billion in 2019. Given the limited impact on the other businesses and our assumption of a full recovery in 2021, the overall effect on our fair value estimate isn't significant and thus we maintain our fair value estimate at SEK 40.

Compared with the same period last year, the group's largest markets of Sweden, Finland and Norway reported a total sales decline. However, group mobile revenue growth came in at 1%, with mobile ARPU increasing in all markets, except Denmark. In Sweden, lower equipment sales more than offset the almost flat growth in service revenues. In Finland, total sales were down 1.4% due to lower fixed services and equipment sales. In Norway, mobile service revenue growth, driven by B2B, was more than offset by lower TV revenues. At the group EBITDA level, the traditional telecom business grew adjusted EBITDA by almost 2%, mainly supported by the Baltic markets and Sweden.

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