H&M: fortsätter växa, fair value kvar på 162 kronor

AKTIE: Ökad försäljning online kompenserar inte stängda butiker under coronakrisen, så Hennes & Mauritz förlorade pengar första halvåret. Men världens näst största klädförsäljare är långsiktigt lika stark som tidigare och fair value ligger kvar på 162 kronor (26 juni 2020).

Morningstar Equity Analysts 2020-06-26 | 10:13

We are maintaining our fair value estimate of SEK 162 for no-moat Hennes & Mauritz as the company reported a loss for the first half of 2020, affected by coronavirus containment measures. We adjust our 2020 forecasts downward to reflect the slower than previously expected pace of recovery after stores reopen, worse fixed-cost absorption and lower capital expenditures. While we don’t see a lasting negative impact of the pandemic on the company’s operations, with shares trading in 3-star territory, we would recommend investors wait for a better entry point.

Revenues in the second quarter fell by 50% as most stores remained closed throughout the quarter and online couldn’t compensate for store closures. Online revenue grew by 32% in the quarter, in constant currencies. In the first half of the year online contributed 28% to revenue, up from 16% in 2019. The gross margin decreased by more than 900 basis points on poor absorption of fixed costs and increased markdowns. Stock in trade declined by 1%, as purchasing was quickly adjusted to the circumstances. The company still expects increased discounting in the third quarter to clear summer stock, however, some of the more seasonless items may be brought to stores and online in autumn. Selling and distribution costs were down 25% as a result of lower variable expenses, rent renegotiations, and government support programs (which accounted for around one fifth of cost reductions). From June 1-24 sales declined by 25%, suggesting a gradual recovery after stores reopened (only 7% of stores remain closed). We expect a 7% decline in revenue in the third quarter before returning to moderate growth in the fourth quarter.

Business Strategy and Outlook  |  26 Jun 2020

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