SKF: bättre marginaler höjer fair value till 210 kronor

AKTIE: Återhämtning av försäljningen redan nästa år plus marginaler som stiger till 14 procent i snitt gör att Morningstars analytiker höjer SKF-aktiens fair value från 175 till 210 kronor (2021-05-17).

Morningstar Equity Analysts 2021-06-07 | 11:36
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Analyst Note | May 14, 2021

We increase our fair value estimate for narrow moat SKF to SEK 210 per share from SEK 175 per share, factoring in a sharper than previously expected recovery in SKF's markets, the beginning of which was demonstrated with first-quarter results. We also bring our midcycle operating income margin assumption to 14%. We assume a permanently lower cost structure going forward by 200 basis points from our previous assumption and in line with management's long-term goal. SKF is executing a multi-year cost reduction program, which includes increased usage of automation. As a result, the number of employees is down more than 6% since 2015. This has supported an increasing annual revenue per employee. By 2022, when we expect a full recovery to the company's prepandemic revenue levels, we forecast revenue/employee to be 20% above 2015 levels.

Our narrow moat rating for SKF is predicated on pricing power, due to the engineering behind its often customized ball bearings. Advanced ball bearing engineering can increase productivity and lower energy costs for customers. Pricing power along with cost flexibility, from the company's adoption of robotics and other automation, has enabled to SKF to weather its mostly procyclical end markets. However, we estimate around 10% of its revenue is favoured by structural tailwinds. First, its exposure to renewables through wind turbines and other "clean tech," end markets, which currently contribute around 9% of revenue. Second, it has an emerging connected service business, with contracts at less than 1% of revenue. However, the services offer a promising growth outlook and also welcome recurring revenue for SKF. Across capital goods companies, connected services have seen good customer take-up rights, due to the productivity gains from preventative maintenance, and we expect the same for SKF's connected service.

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